Why the Russia-Ukraine War Won’t End Anytime Soon

The Soviet Union came apart in 1991. Ukraine became independent. Russia said it would abide by Ukraine’s borders. But that promise got very serious in 1994, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. It was given security guarantees in return, however.

Russia would never relinquish an opportunity like this. Even considered Ukraine family, not a country who should turn west. Russia reacted with unease when Ukraine looked towards Europe and NATO.

Then came 2014. A pro European government arose from the big protests in Ukraine. Russia hit back fast. It took over Crimea. No warning, just no shame—just grab it. War then started in eastern Ukraine. Russia backed fighters there. That war lasted eight years.

Russia went all in on their situation, full invasion in 2022. Ukraine would fall in days, it had thought. It didn’t. Ukraine fought back hard. It was a brutal grind of a war.

Russia now holds about one fifth of Ukraine. And that land is not being given back. That’s the big problem. It’s why the war keeps going. Both sides are losing people. Cities are destroyed. Millions have fled.

Russia is fully cut off from the West. Sanctions hit hard. Therefor it is looking for new friends — China, Iran, whoever comes along.

Peace? Still far off. Ukraine won’t give up land. Russia won’t leave. The war has changed everything. And no one knows how it ends.